Which forecast will be correct?

by Bob Truman on October 29, 2018

in Weather conditions

The predictions from the various sources are all over the map. The Snow Forecast which is usually the most optimistic is showing the least amount right now. 

Windy.com, if I have figured it correctly, is the most optimistic. Most of this snow is predicted for the end of the week, so forecasts could change considerably. 

These are the predictions for Elk Pass for the next five days:

  • Snow Forecast: 2 cm
  • Windy:   18 cm
  • Ventusky:   5 cm
  • Weather Network: 10 cm

Predictions for Lake Louise for the next five days:

  • Snow Forecast:  4 cm
  • Windy:    26 cm
  • Ventusky:    19 cm
  • Weather Network: 14 cm

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Jeff B October 31, 2018 at 7:32 am

I field tested the different models on Windy.com last season and noticed that changing the model to NEMS4km gives the most accurate forecast of the 4 models in the mountains within 48 hours.

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2 MaSid October 29, 2018 at 3:33 pm

Sounds like 5-20 cm. )-: Not enough, unless some base still existing, or it’s an upslope storm where we often get more than forecast. I haven’t checked the Kananaskis snow stations for existing snow, but will. If anyone has observations to share, happy to hear about it. Most of my hikes in the last week or so have been in the foothills, but shaded/forested north aspects in the sheep (bluerock) were still holding snow and not really melting. Sun exposed south slopes were melted out well above treeline.

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3 MaSid October 29, 2018 at 3:57 pm

Mud lake: 21 cm
Highwood pass: 24
Burstall pass: 42
Aster lk: 51

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4 Jim October 29, 2018 at 2:35 pm

A couple other weather resources;
–SpotWX, first heard about this from one of the K-Country Avalanche guys. It allows you to compare graphically presented forecasts based on about 8 different US and Canadian weather models for any location.. Although Canada’s models are supposed to be more sophisticated I find the US GFS model the most reliable for the Rockies

–Washington Weather Loop– this loop from the Univ. of Washington uses GFS (like Snowforecast) and another model. It’s cover the next 72 and is the best I’ve found;
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_pcp3+///3

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